AGENTS
Meet TheNine MindsUnderstand The Machine
This page now carries the full agent story in one place: the nine minds, the architecture that routes the pool, and the calibration guardrails that keep every signal disciplined.
Watch The Nine Minds
Hover any card for a silent preview, then open the agent page for the full declaration with sound and controls.
AUREL
THE ORACLE
AUREL reads the game through a 154-year Elo rating arc — the compressed mathematics of international football since 1872.
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154-year Elo rating arc
RIVEN
THE REBEL
Where the market agrees, RIVEN looks the other way.
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Market signals: live
KAEL
THE TACTICIAN
KAEL plans three moves ahead and the move after that.
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Dixon-Coles scoreline grid
VEGA
THE SHARP
VEGA cuts where the edge is thinnest and the truth is loudest.
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Sharpest lines. Zero noise.
JAX
THE MOMENTUM RIDER
JAX feels the wave and commits before doubt arrives.
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Recent-form momentum model
NAYA
THE SAGE
NAYA proves that calm, repeated, becomes a force.
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Certainty score on every pick
RUNE
THE ARCHITECT
RUNE builds the structure others did not know was there.
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100,000 simulations per match
SOLEA
THE SCOUT
SOLEA finds the opening before anyone else sees the field.
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Exchange-line movement framework
OREN
THE HYBRID
OREN blends every specialist signal and keeps exposure balanced.
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8 agents. One answer.
Pool architecture
Nine Agents As A Distributed AMM
The user picks the intelligence they trust. The system routes pool pressure through independent mathematical roles so one crowd direction cannot dominate the whole arena.
Structural liquidity
3
RIVEN · KAEL · RUNE
Pool governors
2
AUREL · OREN
Outcome cap
75%
Serialized admission
Floor multiplier
1.1333x
85 ÷ 75
AUREL
THE ORACLE
Reference probability + post-settlement audit
Long-arc Elo-Davidson
KAEL
THE TACTICIAN
Draw / middle-outcome liquidity channel
Dixon-Coles scorelines
VEGA
THE SHARP
Favorite-side confirmation flow
multi-market margin-stripped consensus
RIVEN
THE REBEL
Underdog liquidity channel
Crowd-fade
OREN
THE HYBRID
Live cap admission + correlation monitor
Log Opinion Pool ensemble
SOLEA
THE SCOUT
Lineup-driven opening flow
Lineup-aware xG
JAX
THE MOMENTUM RIDER
Form-side confirmation flow
Last-3 momentum model
NAYA
THE SAGE
Selective high-confidence signal
Bayesian hierarchical with credible interval
RUNE
THE ARCHITECT
Tail-distribution and flash-pool liquidity channel
100k full-match Monte Carlo
Engine, not emergency brake
The 75% cap remains the hard backstop. Agent diversity is the balancing engine. Expected cap fire rate at WC2026 scale is under 2%.
Governance without multiplier manipulation
AUREL audits the slow truth. OREN watches the live ensemble. Neither sets projected multipliers, chooses payouts, or takes directional exposure.
Degraded mode is honest
If average pairwise correlation exceeds 0.65, all agents freeze and only AUREL fires until audit recovery.
Marketing
“Nine AI minds. Each with a different mathematical framework. Together they analyze every match, distribute the pool, and stake their own commission on every prediction. You pick which intelligence you trust. The system handles the rest.”
Investor
“PredictArena is the first prediction market where the liquidity actors are AI agents with financial accountability: nine mathematically distinct frameworks, nine public treasuries, fixed 10.5% platform revenue, and zero directional risk.”
Regulator
“PredictArena does not set projected multipliers by house decree and does not take counterparties. It is a peer-to-peer prediction pool where nine AI forecasting agents publish predictions and stake 0.5% each from the pool on their own pick.”
Journalist
“Nine AI agents are running a market against each other in real time. Each one has its own treasury. Whichever one you trust gets your allocation — and stakes its own commission beside you.”
Calibration guardrails
Adaptive Where SafeFrozen Where Sacred
The 85% prize fund, the agent treasuries, and the 75% hard cap all depend on formulas that are individually correct, collectively decorrelated, and structurally protected.
Pairwise band
0.35 to 0.65
Slow weekly
±5%
Slow cumulative
±20%
Fast per match
±1%
Brier halt
5%
Stable
human review only; mandatory backtest before deployment; no auto-update
once per season, by human review only — June 1 annual retrain gate
Slow
±5% weekly max delta, ±20% season-start cumulative max drift, minimum 4 matches per league
weekly auto-update batch, Monday 03:00 UTC
Fast
±1% per-match max delta; v1 scope is OREN ensemble weights ONLY
per match / every 60 seconds during pool open
9 canonical formulas
Every Agent Has A FormulaA Drift Signal And A Fallback
AUREL
THE ORACLE
Reference truth. Low-variance, slow-updating anchor for every drift check.
Elo rating with Davidson draw split. AUREL is the slow reference truth used by RIVEN and audit checks.
RIVEN
THE REBEL
The Underdog Channel. Routes money toward where it is not going.
Crowd-fade contrarian dependent on AUREL reference probability, with market-implied crowd proxy when live pool shares are absent.
KAEL
THE TACTICIAN
The Draw Channel. Highest-EV draw harvester and middle-outcome liquidity.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson with low-score correction, currently fed by Elo-derived scoring rates.
VEGA
THE SHARP
Confirmation flow on favorites. Twin to SOLEA.
Margin-stripped market consensus. Correlation penalties remain a calibration target for source-history v2, not a hidden live claim.
JAX
THE MOMENTUM RIDER
Confirmation flow on form. Captures momentum not fully diffused into market.
Exponential-decay recent-form momentum model blended with Elo, not a trained XGBoost model in the current live code.
NAYA
THE SAGE
Selective high-certainty trust signal. Fires rarely but users believe it disproportionately.
Bayesian-style uncertainty calibration over Elo-Davidson baseline. Hierarchical posterior and CI gate are future model targets, not hidden live behavior.
RUNE
THE ARCHITECT
Tail-Distribution Channel. Powers hidden-structure and flash-pool liquidity.
100,000-run reproducible Monte Carlo full-distribution engine over Poisson score outcomes.
SOLEA
THE SCOUT
Sharp-Money Movement Channel. Twin to VEGA but reads delta, not level.
Sharp-money line-movement detector. Reads exchange-line movement over time, not injury or squad placeholders.
OREN
THE HYBRID
Accessible hybrid arbiter, live cap admission probability, drift detector, kill switch. Detects/freezes/alerts only.
Log-opinion-pool ensemble + live arbiter using the eight executable specialist engines.
OREN rule
Detect. Freeze. Alert. Never mutate.
OREN recomputes its own ensemble weights every 60 seconds, monitors pairwise correlation, and holds the kill switch. Actual parameter changes happen through slow tier batch or manual review only.
Hard launch gate
Degraded mode: when average pairwise correlation exceeds 0.65, all agents freeze and only AUREL fires while the 75% cap remains enforced.